Win, Top-5, and DNF probabilities for every driver in the NASCAR Cup Series — graded weekly against real race results.
XGBoost multinomial classifier trained on 2020–2025, ~8K driver-race rows. 16 features blending driver ELO, track-type history, qualifying, and team strength.
Walk-forward validation, no leakage. Every feature is computed using only data available before the race. Predictions are graded against real finishing order.
Six finish buckets per driver — Win, Top-5, Top-10, Top-20, Made, DNF — combined into Expected Points. The whole field, ranked, every race.
| Track | Race | Date | Spearman | Top-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Motor Speedway | Wurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY | Sunday, May 3, 2026 | ρ 0.46 | 2/5 |
| Talladega Superspeedway | Jack Link's 500 | Sunday, April 26, 2026 | ρ -0.08 | 0/5 |
| Kansas Speedway | AdventHealth 400 | Sunday, April 19, 2026 | ρ 0.72 | 3/5 |
| Bristol Motor Speedway | Food City 500 | Sunday, April 12, 2026 | ρ 0.68 | 3/5 |
| Martinsville Speedway | Cook Out 400 | Sunday, March 29, 2026 | ρ 0.85 | 4/5 |